Jan 03,2018  Steel Knowledge.

September 1, Benxi Iron and Steel explosion occurred, there is news that this September 2, Hebei saw a steel plant explosion, steel futures market bulls, rebar, hot rolled futures prices both hit a four-year high The

September 1 night night futures market continues to rise, the market sentiment and excitement. Since August, in a series of policies led by good, steel futures performance eye-catching, this time again strong market can continue to become the focus of attention.

Steel futures sky soared

Friday night, steel futures continued daytime trend, led the commodity market. Hot rolled futures main force 1801 contract to close at 4367 yuan / ton, compared with the previous day settlement price rose as high as 5.25%; thread futures 1801 contract rose also reached 3.88%. The two major futures varieties hit a new high since February 2013.

From Friday to close the situation, the funds for the relevant species is still very concerned about:

There is a worry behind the high innovation

Talking about the recent trend of steel futures, West New Shinkansen senior researcher Qiu Yuecheng pointed out last week: "Futures this week is down after the first half of the spot turnover continued to slump, the price impact of the futures trend, the second half of a series of positive, including August manufacturing and steel industryPMIMore than expected recovery, the Ministry of Environmental Protection website hanging out of the "Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the surrounding areas 2017 - 2018 autumn and winter air pollution control action program," the four supporting programs, Bengang 4747 cubic meters of blast furnace explosion, triggering the market For environmental protection overweight and security inspection upgrade is expected to further enhance the large influx of long-term funds pulled up futures, and driven spot prices fell to rise. "

Yongan Futures Research Institute Vice President Zhu Shiwei that the recent rise in prices mainly from the mood and expectations. "Is expected to be two aspects, one is yesterday, Benxi Iron and Steel explosion triggered a steel mill repair expectations, this will result in supply shrinkage; the other is the supply side of the intensity is expected to be strong, followed by" 2 + 26 "," 19 " influences."

But he also reminded that the market now ignores the demand side of the change: First, the slow rise in inventory; Second, the impact of environmental protection supervision on consumption. These two days can be seen with the price rise, the transaction did not appear to improve, the current rise in the lack of strong endogenous motivation. "From the futures market, the thread has not risen, the coil has been premium.Now we have to look at the extent of the weekend to follow up on the spot, if the spot follow-up is better, then the futures price may be further on the red; if the spot Follow the weak words, then the futures go up the space is very limited.

Data show that the latest rebar social stock was 448.93 million tons, up by 110,600 tons, up 18.97 million tons year on year. Which increased the most obvious in East China, other areas to slightly fluctuated mainly. The national rebar plant factory inventory of 2.3267 million tons, 49.4 million tons of weekly. The overall social and steel inventories have accumulated to some extent, but still at a low level, the supply and demand intensification is not obvious.

Relevant departments have repeatedly shot down

For the August steel prices rose, in fact, the relevant departments have been shot down several times.

August 10, China Iron and Steel Industry Association (China Steel Association) has issued a statement "unswervingly maintain the smooth operation of the steel industry," the text criticized some of the institutions for the policy of excessive interpretation and market speculation. August 9, China Steel Association invited some iron and steel enterprises, futures exchanges, futures companies, steel and electricity and information consulting firm and other representatives of the joint study of "transaction" reasons.

China Steel Association said the participants agreed that the current sharp rise in steel prices is not driven by market demand or market supply reduction caused by, but part of the agency to the production capacity, clear the "steel" and environmental supervision and 2 + 26 Urban air pollution prevention and control plan for excessive interpretation, or even misreading, especially in the second half of the impact of environmental protection will cause a significant reduction in the supply of steel products, steel prices but also "soaring" extreme judgment. This kind of market situation judgments undoubtedly enlarge the environmental protection and other relevant policies for the impact of market supply, is one-sided, alarmist speculation behavior, inevitably from the profits of the suspect.

On the afternoon of August 11, three official announcements were issued on the official website of the previous period: "Notice on the Implementation of Trading Limits for Rebar", "Notice on Adjusting the Relevant Contracts for Rebar Contracts" and " Current market risk management work notice ".

Announced that since August 15, 2017, non-futures company members, customers in the rebar RB1710 and RB1801 contract days to open the largest number of transactions for the 8000 hands. Hedging transactions are not subject to this limitation. Rebar RB1710 contract, RB1801 contract Nissin Immediate warehouse transaction fee from the turnover of one ten thousandth of the amount adjusted to five times the same as the transaction limit, but also from August 15, 2017 from the implementation.

On August 24, the "Notice on Adjusting the Transaction Fee for the Relevant Contracts for Hot Rolling Coil" and the Notice on the Implementation of the Trading Limits on the Related Contracts for Hot Rolled Coil, announced that since August 2017 25 days: hot-rolled coil HC1710 contract, HC1801 contract Nissin Immediate warehouse transaction fee from the turnover of one ten thousandth of the amount of turnover to adjust the amount of five ten thousandths. Since August 25, 2017, non-futures company members, customers in the hot-rolled coil HC1710, HC1801 contract days to open the largest number of transactions for the 3000 hand. Actual Control Relationships The maximum number of open positions in an account group is executed on a single customer basis. Hedging transactions are not subject to this limitation.

The current round of steel prices from the supply side of the policy is good

August on the road steel remediation and environmental management theme again intensive fermentation, causing the market once again a strong supply contraction expectations, the overall trend of steel prices to form a direct boost. mainly include:

1, July 29, Premier Li Keqiang of the State Council on the ban on the "Land Steel" to make important instructions, stressed the need to resolve excess capacity to push forward, to prevent the resurgence of the wind against the crime to be severely punished according to law, Be sure to do so.

2, Zhang Gaoli, deputy prime minister asked to do a good job in autumn and winter air pollution prevention and control work, the development of the peak peak cut production program.

3, July 31 People's Daily published a commentary article pointed out that the production can not be tangled, the greater the sweetness in front.

4, as of August 1, at the end of April to the end of May has been stationed in Tianjin, Shanxi, Liaoning, Anhui, Fujian, Hunan, Guizhou provinces and cities in the third batch of the central environmental protection inspection team to complete the above seven inspectors Feedback, Tianjin, Hunan found a land of steel resurgence phenomenon, the relevant responsible person by the strict, Shanxi area more pollution control by the central environmental protection supervision group severely criticized.

5, August 2 Tangshan city government held the city's air pollution prevention and control work scheduling, the requirements of Tangshan City, the district for the heating season iron and steel, cement, coking, glass peak production in advance to make arrangements, strict implementation of national and provincial Of the work requirements, while the requirements have been included in the withdrawal of production enterprises to speed up the exit.

6, August 15, the fourth batch of central environmental protection inspectors finally entered the final group of Tibet Autonomous Region. At this point, the central environmental protection inspectors have achieved full coverage of 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities). According to the "Legal Daily" reporter learned that, according to the central environmental protection inspectors of the work process arrangements, the first batch of central environmental inspectors accountability results or will be open in the near future, the results of the strict accountability, accountability level or unexpected. "Who can dare to scold the project, chaos cover the house!" Central Environmental Inspectors decided to place with the wrong development concept "dead knock in the end." Public data show that the first three batches of central environmental inspectors accountability and interviews were more than million people.

7, 2017 from January to July, Hebei Province, reducing the annual planned iron ore production capacity of 12.26 million tons, steel production capacity of 10.53 million tons, respectively, to complete the annual task 75.5%, 67.4%; reduce cement production capacity of 1.6 million tons, excess The task of 45.5%; reduce flat glass 2.6 million weight box, complete the annual task of 52.0%; reduce the coke production capacity of 208.8 million tons, to complete the annual total task of 29.0%; reduce coal production capacity of 4.46 million tons, respectively, to complete the national task, Pressure task 59.0%, 47.4%.

8, 23, the Ministry of Environmental Protection issued Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the surrounding areas to strengthen the supervision and control of air pollution, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei joint meeting to deploy the relevant work. In addition, the Ministry of Environmental Protection of the region's steel and non-ferrous metals and other sectors of the sewage permit issuance will also be completed by the end of the year.

9, August 24 from the Ministry of Environmental Protection was informed that "the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the surrounding areas 2017 - 2018 autumn and winter air pollution comprehensive management tackling action program" issued, designed to do 2017 - 2018 autumn and winter air pollution prevention and control work, and resolutely lay "Blue Sky Battle". "2 + 26" cities to implement the classification management of iron and steel enterprises, in accordance with the level of pollution emissions performance, before the end of September 2017 to develop the wrong peak cut off the program. Shijiazhuang, Tangshan, Handan, Anyang and other key cities, heating season, iron production capacity of 50% to blast furnace production capacity, the actual use of enterprise electricity to verify. October 1, 2017 to March 31, 2018, coking enterprises coke time are extended to 36 hours or more, located in the city built coking enterprises to be extended to more than 48 hours. Program put forward the goal, the full completion of the "atmosphere of ten" assessment indicators. October 2017 to March 2018, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei air pollution transmission channel PM2.5 average concentration fell more than 15% year on year, heavy pollution days fell more than 15%.

10, August 31, the Ministry of Environmental Protection website hanging out of the "Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the surrounding areas 2017 - 2018 autumn and winter air pollution control tackling action program," the four supporting programs, involving strengthening supervision, inspection, quantitative asked Responsibility and information disclosure. "Inspection program" clear, 2017 - 2018 autumn and winter air pollution comprehensive management tackling action inspection time for September 1, 2017 to March 29, 2018. According to the "inspection program", the Ministry of Environmental Protection will send 102 inspection teams from September 15, 2017 to January 4, 2018, "2 + 26" cities and their respective counties in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei air pollution transmission channel (City, district), to carry out a four-month routine inspection work.

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